Fed Rate Cuts Remain Elusive.

by Ryan Skove

Why Markets Can’t Count on Inflation Data for Insight and 5 Other Things to Know Today.

Traders are still in the dark about when the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates. Even two new inflation data points this week may not provide much more clarity.

The producer price index is out Tuesday, and the consumer price index is on Wednesday. The CPI, in particular, has been sticky this year. A large part of that comes down to housing costs, which haven’t slowed as much as the Fed might have hoped, but it could also be statistical noise—and housing counts for a lot less in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index.

Also of note is that labor market data have been heavily revised this year, making them a bit harder to decipher. Morgan Stanley has identified another issue—the seasonal adjustments to the inflation data could be a bit off, making inflation appear hotter in the first half than it will in the second half of the year.

If this all seems confusing, you’re not alone. Fed officials are also struggling to get a clear idea of what’s happening. There will be plenty of updates on their thinking, though, with almost a dozen speaking events this week. That includes Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

Here’s the bigger picture. Inflation is probably still slowing, even if the data looks bumpy. Consumers’ savings piles from the COVID-19 pandemic are gone, making them even more price-sensitive than they used to be. Retail sales figures and earnings this week from Walmart and Home Depot will add more color there. Pay particular attention to what executives say about the outlook, they’ve got their fingers on the pulse.

And Fed officials may well indicate they would like to cut rates, even if the data won’t allow them to yet. That’s a good sign for investors, even if the first reduction isn’t imminent.

Ryan Skove

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