Why Pre-Approval Is a Game Changer for Homebuyers If you’re planning to buy a home this year, you might have heard that pre-approval is a necessary step to take before starting out on your journey. But why is that? And is it still important in today’s shifting market? The truth is, getting a pre-approval letter from your lender is critical, and when it comes to your home search, it can be a game changer in so many ways. To better understand why, it’s important to know what pre-approval is. Freddie Mac defines the process like this: “A pre-approval is an indication from your lender that they are willing to lend you a certain amount of money to buy your future home. The lender you work with will provide you with a pre-approval letter, which is an official document that states the maximum amount they are willing to lend you, . . .” Put simply, pre-approval from a lender helps you understand your true price range and how much money you can borrow for your loan. That can make it easier when you set out to search for homes. And since you’ll know what you’re approved for, it’ll also help once it’s time to submit an offer on the home of your dreams. Another added benefit is that pre-approval lets the seller know you’re qualified to buy their house. Paul Centopani, Editor for the Mortgage Reports, explains: “. . . most sellers won’t even consider an offer unless the buyer is pre-approved at the right price point. Sellers and their agents want to know you’re ready and able to finance your offer amount. So you’ll want to have your preapproval teed up as soon as you’re serious about bidding on a home you like.” Every advantage you can gain as a buyer is crucial in a market that’s constantly changing. You’re going to need guidance to navigate these waters, so it’s important to have a team of professionals, such as a real estate advisor and trusted lender, on your side. They’ll help make sure you’re ready to put your best foot forward. Bottom Line Getting pre-approved for a mortgage helps you better understand what you can borrow and shows sellers you’re serious about purchasing their home. Let’s connect so you have the tools you need to succeed as a homebuyer in today’s shifting market.  

Think Home Prices Are Going To Fall? Think Again Over the last two years, the rate of home prices appreciated at a dramatic pace. While that led to incredible equity gains for homeowners, it’s also caused some buyers to wonder if home prices will fall. It’s important to know the housing market isn’t a bubble about to burst, and home price growth is supported by strong market fundamentals. To understand why price declines are unlikely, it’s important to explore what caused home prices to rise so much recently, and where experts say home prices are headed. Here’s what you need to know. Home Prices Rose Significantly in Recent Years The graph below uses the latest data from CoreLogic to illustrate the rise in home prices over the past year and a half. The gray bars represent the dramatic increase in the rate of home price appreciation in 2021. The blue bars show home prices are still rising in 2022, but not as quickly: You might be asking: why did home prices climb so much last year? It’s because there were more buyers than there were homes for sale. That imbalance put upward pressure on home prices because demand was extremely high, and supply was record low. Where Experts Say Prices Will Go from Here While housing inventory is increasing and buyer demand is softening today, there’s still a shortage of homes available for sale. That’s why the market is seeing ongoing price appreciation. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains it like this: “. . .we’re still well below normal levels of inventory and that’s why even with the pullback in demand, we still see house prices appreciating. While there is more inventory, it’s still not enough.” As a result, experts are projecting a more moderate rate of home price appreciation this year, which means home prices will continue rising, but at a slower pace. That doesn’t mean prices are going to fall. As Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, says: “The current home price growth rate is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices.” In other words, even with higher mortgage rates, moderating buyer demand, and more homes for sale, experts say home price appreciation will slow, but prices won't decline. If you’re planning to buy a home, that means you shouldn’t wait for home prices to drop to make your purchase. Instead, buying today means you can get ahead of future price increases, and benefit from the rise in prices in the form of home equity. Bottom Line Home prices skyrocketed in recent years because there was more demand than supply. As the market shifts, experts aren’t forecasting a drop in prices, just a slowdown in the rate of price growth. To understand what’s happening with home prices in our area, let’s connect today.

This site requires javascript to function properly.   Record-Setting Drop in Builder Confidence in July The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) released it's Housing Market Index (HMI) for July this morning. This measure of builder confidence fell to 55 from last month's 67, well short of the 65 median forecast.  The "prospective buyer" category led the charge, falling to 37 from 48 in June. While neither index is anywhere near record lows, this was the biggest month-over-month drop on record (apart from the April 2020 reading which should arguably be thrown out as the survey hit at peak lockdown). Does this mean the housing market is doomed to a worse fate than that seen in 2007/08?  A different version of the same chart helps answer that question.  This time around, the chart shows the change in confidence compared to the same month 3 years in the past.  This does a much better job of showing boom/bust cycles in housing. While housing is by no means facing the same headwinds that led up to the financial crisis, it's definitely cooling off rapidly.  It also remains to be seen how that cooling resolves itself.  If rates and inflation have peaked in 2022, this sort of contraction could end up looking more like a normalization that resets the board for a more stable housing market in 2023.   Ryan Skove Professional Realtor Skove Real Estate Team - eXp Realty P: (732) 284-1116 M: (732) 217-7383 https://NJShoreRealtors... SeashoreLiving.com NJShoreRealtors.com 213 NJ-35Red Bank NJ 07701 License: #2186472 Ask Me a Question Weekly Newsletter | Mortgage Calculators | Economic Calendar | More Housing News  

Wondering Where You’ll Move if You Sell Your House Today? If you put a pause on your home search because you weren’t sure where you’d go once you sold your house, it might be a good time to get back into the market. That’s because today’s market is undergoing a shift, and the supply of homes for sale is increasing as a result. That means you may have a better chance of finding a home that will meet your current needs. Here are some options to consider. Buying an Existing Home Can Give You That Lived-in Charm According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the supply of existing homes (a home that’s been previously owned) has steadily increased since the beginning of the year. The graph below indicates inventory levels are rising, and that’s largely due to more homes coming onto the market and the pace of sales slowing: As the graph shows, if you’re looking for a home with lived-in charm, supply is rising, and that’s great news for you. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, gives insight into why more homeowners are listing their homes and adding to the growing supply of existing homes today: “Home sellers in many markets across the country continue to benefit from rising home prices and fast-selling homes. That’s prompted a growing number of homeowners to sell homes this year compared to last, giving home shoppers much needed options. We’ve seen more homes come up for sale this year compared to last year . . .” There are several benefits to buying an existing home. Many buyers want to purchase a home with history, and the character of older houses is hard to reproduce. Existing homes can often be part of an established neighborhood featuring mature landscaping that can give you additional privacy and boost your curb appeal. Plus, timing can be a consideration as well. With an existing home, you can move in based on the timeline you agree to with the sellers, rather than building a new home and waiting for construction to finish. This is something to keep in mind, especially if you need to move sooner rather than later. Just remember, while more sellers are listing their homes, supply is still low overall. That means you’ll have more options to choose from as you search for your next home, but you’ll still need to be prepared for a fast-moving market. Purchasing a Newly Built or Under Construction Home Means Brand New Everything Census data shows there’s an increasing number of new homes available for sale. It includes homes that are under construction, soon to be completed, and fully built. As the graph below highlights, the supply of new homes for sale has also grown this year: When building a new home, you can create your perfect living space and customize it to your lifestyle. That could mean everything from requesting energy efficient options to specific design features. Plus, you’ll have the benefit of all new appliances, windows, roofing, and more. These can all help lower your energy costs, which can add up to significant savings over time. The lower maintenance that comes with a newer home is another great advantage. When you have a new home, you likely won’t have as many little repairs to tackle, like leaky faucets, shutters to paint, and other odd jobs around the house. And with new construction, you’ll also have warranty options that may cover portions of your investment for the first few years. Keep in mind, purchasing a new home could mean waiting a considerable amount of time before you can move. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Economics and Housing Policy at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains: “New single-family home inventory remained elevated at a 7.7 months’ supply. . . . However, only 8.3% of new home inventory is completed and ready to occupy. The remaining have not started construction (25.9%) or are currently under construction.” That’s an important factor when making your decision and one you should discuss with a trusted real estate advisor. They’ll help you think through all the pros and cons of both new and existing homes to help you arrive at your best decision. Bottom Line With the supply of homes for sale rising, you have options for your next home no matter what your preferences are. If you have questions or want help deciding what’s best for you, let’s connect and start the conversation today.

The Drop in Mortgage Rates Brings Good News for Homebuyers Over the past few weeks, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac fell by half a percent. The drop happened over concerns about a potential recession. And since mortgage rates have risen dramatically this year, homebuyers across the country should see this decline as welcome news. Freddie Mac reports that the average 30-year rate was down to 5.30% from 5.81% two weeks prior (see graph below): But why is this recent dip such good news for homebuyers? As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains: “According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped sharply by 40 basis points to 5.3 percent. . . . As a result, home buying is about 5 percent more affordable than a week ago. This translates to about $100 less every month on a mortgage payment.” That’s because when rates go up (as they have for the majority of this year), they impact how much you’ll pay in your monthly mortgage payment, which directly affects how much you can comfortably afford. The inverse is also true. A decrease in mortgage rates means an increase in your purchasing power. The chart below shows how a half-point, or even a quarter-point, change in mortgage rates can impact your monthly payment: Bottom Line If your home doesn’t meet your needs, this may be the opportunity you’ve been waiting for. Let’s connect to see how you can benefit from the current drop in mortgage rates.

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Has The Corner Been Turned? Mortgage rates have been volatile in 2022. Most of that volatility has played out in the form of higher rates. The past 2 weeks have been a notable exception.   To understand why this is happening, we first need to consider that higher inflation means higher rates.  It was easy to forget that for most of the past decade, but impossible to escape since early 2021, and especially since early 2022.  Several big jumps in inflation have forced the Federal Reserve to drastically tighten policy.  One of those policies had been to buy lots of bonds, including those that specifically underlie the mortgage market.  More bond buying demand = lower rates.  As the Fed backs out, rates are hit with the double whammy of high inflation and less buying demand. The resulting surge had covered enough ground by early May that it was time to consider the possibility that they'd topped out indefinitely.  That may have proven to be the case were in not for a duo of hotter-than-expected inflation reports in the EU and US.  The latter (the Consumer Price Index or CPI) was particularly troubling.  It happened on June 10th and was responsible for the rapid spike up in 30yr fixed rates up into the 6's. Fast forward 3 weeks and rates are just now back to the levels seen on June 10th.  The following chart includes the often-cited, but frequently misleading weekly rate survey from Freddie Mac in addition to actual daily averages for top tier 30yr fixed rate quotes.  Volatility! So why have rates dropped so much in the past few weeks? First off, they probably rose a bit too aggressively in mid-June.  Traders were nervous as they waited to see how the Fed would respond to the June 10th CPI report (the Fed announcement was June 15th).  After that, it's possibly as simple as saying a majority of the economic data at home and abroad sent the signals we were hoping to see before last month's inflation surprise. This week's most hotly anticipated example was the PCE inflation data, which, along with CPI is one of the 2 major inflation indices in the US. Although it was only slightly cooler than expected, this is all the market needed to continue the healing process.  PCE also showed the 3rd consecutive month of declines. The notion of a "healing" process for rates is bittersweet as it draws strength from damage to the global economy.  One of the most basic ways to follow general economic trends is via PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data.  These are typically divided into manufacturing and non-manufacturing flavors.  They're far more timely than GDP data, so markets are more willing to respond.   Most of the PMI data in Europe and US has been slipping recently with some notable milestones.  One of the components of the Eurozone report showed the first decline in manufacturing output in more than 2 years.  The US version painted a similar picture via the contraction in "new orders" which plunged well into 2-year lows, matching the weakest pre-pandemic levels going back to the financial crisis. The combination of weaker economic data, cooler inflation, and an apparently overdone rate spike back in June mean it's once again time to entertain that we've seen the top in rates for 2022. NOTE: this only refers to a ceiling.  We wouldn't expect rates to be able to plummet until several months of data confirm a return to historically normal levels of inflation.  As for a ceiling, the bond market is certainly considering it.  In fact, it's actively making that bet.  The following chart shows market-based inflation expectations (in orange).  As of this week, they fell back to mid-2021 lows.  Keep in mind, mid-2021 lows are still higher than anything seen since 2014.  Also consider that the orange line represents expectations for the next 10 years... not a forecast for imminent price movement (any positive number means that prices would still be increasing, just not as quickly).   Nowhere is that concept more painfully apparent than in home prices. This week's home price data from both FHFA and Case Shiller showed price growth remaining near 20% year-over-year. There are two caveats here.  The first is that the month-over-month numbers will be increasingly important as economists look for a turning point in prices.  No love there: The second is that home price indices are notoriously late.  Both were released this past Tuesday, June 28th, and they cover the month of April.  Lots has happened since then!  Some of the drama has been captured in the form of "price cuts" on real estate listings.   As we discussed last week, this is best viewed as a shift back in the direction of sanity.  A majority of the price cuts are among sellers who were getting greedy based on the staggering price trajectory of the past 2 years.  Price cuts among that cohort are not only good, they're necessary!  We want house price growth to be slow, steady, and sustainable.  That will require a sharp contraction in price growth with some areas seeing modest contractions, all followed by a period of very low growth.   All of that might sound scary for those who remember 2007-2009, but we're not talking about big, widespread price declines--just enough of a return to normalcy to arrest the slide seen in home sales. Ryan Skove Professional Realtor, Skove Real Estate Team - eXp Realty P: (732) 284-1116 M: (732) 217-7383 www.NJShoreRealtors.com SeashoreLiving.com 670 N. Beers St. #130Holmdel NJ 07733 License: #2186472 This newsletter is a service of MBS Live.? 2022 MBS Live, LLC. | 19701 Bethel Church Rd. | Cornelius, NC 28031 All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or financial advice. This email was sent to: [recipientemail]. Please click here to UNSUBSCRIBE. Download PDF View on Web

Two Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t a Bubble You may be reading headlines and hearing talk about a potential housing bubble or a crash, but it’s important to understand that the data and expert opinions tell a different story. A recent survey from Pulsenomics asked over one hundred housing market experts and real estate economists if they believe the housing market is in a bubble. The results indicate most experts don’t think that’s the case (see graph below): As the graph shows, a strong majority (60%) said the real estate market is not currently in a bubble. In the same survey, experts give the following reasons why this isn’t like 2008: The recent growth in home prices is because of demographics and low inventory Credit risks are low because underwriting and lending standards are sound If you’re concerned a crash may be coming, here’s a deep dive into those two key factors that should help ease your concerns. 1. Low Housing Inventory Is Causing Home Prices To Rise The supply of homes available for sale needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation. As the graph below shows, there were too many homes for sale from 2007 to 2010 (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s still a shortage of inventory, which is causing ongoing home price appreciation (see graph below): Inventory is nothing like the last time. Prices are rising because there’s a healthy demand for homeownership at the same time there’s a limited supply of homes for sale. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains: “The fundamentals driving house price growth in the U.S. remain intact. . . . The demand for homes continues to exceed the supply of homes for sale, which is keeping house price growth high.” 2. Mortgage Lending Standards Today Are Nothing Like the Last Time During the housing bubble, it was much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. Here’s a graph showing the mortgage volume issued to purchasers with a credit score less than 620 during the housing boom, and the subsequent volume in the years after: This graph helps show one element of why mortgage standards are nothing like they were the last time. Purchasers who acquired a mortgage over the last decade are much more qualified than they were in the years leading up to the crash. Realtor.com notes: “. . . Lenders are giving mortgages only to the most qualified borrowers. These buyers are less likely to wind up in foreclosure.” Bottom Line A majority of experts agree we’re not in a housing bubble. That’s because home price growth is backed by strong housing market fundamentals and lending standards are much tighter today. If you have questions, let’s connect to discuss why today’s housing market is nothing like 2008.

Home Price Deceleration Doesn’t Mean Home Price Depreciation Experts in the real estate industry use a number of terms when they talk about what's happening with home prices. And some of those words sound a bit similar but mean very different things. To help clarify what's happening with home prices and where experts say they're going, here’s a look at a few terms you may hear: Appreciation is when home prices increase. Depreciation is when home prices decrease. Deceleration is when home prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower pace. Where Home Prices Have Been in Recent Years For starters, you’ve probably heard home prices have skyrocketed over the past two years, but homes were actually appreciating long before that. You might be surprised to learn that home prices have climbed for 122 consecutive months (see graph below): As the graph shows, houses have gained value consistently over the past 10 consecutive years. But since 2020, the increase has been more dramatic as home price growth accelerated. So why did home prices climb so much? It’s because there were more buyers than there were homes for sale. That imbalance put upward pressure on home prices because demand was high and supply was low. Where Experts Say Home Prices Are Going While this is helpful context, if you’re a buyer or seller in today’s market, you probably want to know what’s going to happen with home prices moving forward. Will they continue that same growth path or will home prices fall? Experts are forecasting ongoing appreciation, just at a decelerated pace. In other words, prices will keep climbing, just not as fast as they have been. The graph below shows home price forecasts from seven industry leaders. None are calling for prices to fall (see graph below): Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, identifies a key reason why home prices won’t depreciate or drop: “In today’s housing market, demand for homes continues to outpace supply, which is keeping the pressure on house prices, so don’t expect house prices to decline.” And although housing supply is starting to tick up, it’s not enough to make home prices decline because there’s still a gap between the number of homes available for sale and the volume of buyers looking to make a purchase. Terry Loebs, Founder of the research firm Pulsenomics, notes that most real estate experts and economists anticipate home prices will continue rising. As he puts it: “With home values at record-high levels and a vast majority of experts projecting additional price increases this year and beyond, home prices and expectations remain buoyant.” Bottom Line Experts forecast price deceleration, not depreciation. That means home prices will continue to rise, just at a slower pace. Let’s connect so you can get the full picture of what’s happening with home prices in our local market and to discuss your buying and selling goals.

Luxury Homes Are in High Demand As people realize their needs are changing, some are turning to luxury housing to find their dream home. Investopedia helps define what pushes a home into this category. In a recent article, they point out that a luxury home isn’t only defined by its price. Location is also an important factor. It could be a condo at a desirable city address, a spacious home on the water, or one with access to luxury activities like arts and entertainment, high-end shopping and dining, and more. The home itself will also boast some of the finest features available. According to the Luxury Market Report from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, there’s been a substantial increase in how many buyers are purchasing luxury homes over the past two years. It says: “. . . North America recorded the fastest growth of demand during the first year of the pandemic. Also, demand has . . . consistently increased, and even in April 2022, we saw a higher volume of sales compared to 2021.” If you own a luxury home, it could be a great time to list your house today while demand is so high. But first, let’s understand where the demand is coming from. What’s Driving the Heightened Buyer Demand for High-End Homes? The same report says more people have reached a certain net-worth threshold, and that’s contributing to the increased interest in luxury housing: “In 2020, we saw a 2.2% growth in the number of individuals with wealth of over $5 million in net value, but in 2021 that number grew by an outstanding 19.8%. This total increase has resulted in the introduction of over 660,000 new individuals into the high net-worth bracket, which, combined with the existing affluent looking to both diversify and add new properties to their portfolio, provides a true insight into why the demand for luxury properties skyrocketed during 2021 and into 2022.” So, if you’re looking to make changes to your real estate portfolio or are looking to sell your current house, it may be a great time to list and benefit from the high demand for luxury homes today. Bottom Line If you own a luxury home and want to know how strong demand is in your area, let's connect so you can capitalize on current market conditions while buyer demand for upscale homes is so high.

Is the Housing Market Correcting? If you're following the news, all of the headlines about conditions in the current housing market may leave you with more questions than answers. Is the boom over? Is the market crashing or correcting? Here’s what you need to know. The housing market is moderating compared to the last two years, but what everyone needs to remember is that the past two years were record-breaking in nearly every way. Record-low mortgage rates and millennials reaching peak homebuying years led to an influx of buyer demand. At the same time, there weren’t enough homes available to purchase thanks to many years of underbuilding and sellers who held off on listing their homes due to the health crisis. This combination led to record-high demand and record-low supply, and that wasn’t going to be sustainable for the long term. The latest data shows early signs of a shift back to the market pace seen in the years leading up to the pandemic – not a crash nor a correction. As realtor.com says: “The housing market is at a turning point. . . . We’re starting to see signs of a new direction, . . .” Home Showings Then and Now The ShowingTime Showing Index tracks the traffic of home showings according to agents and brokers. It’s a good indication of buyer demand. Here’s a look at that data going back to 2019 (see graph below): The 2019 numbers give a good baseline of pre-pandemic demand (shown in gray). As the graph indicates, home showings skyrocketed during the pandemic (shown in blue). And while current buyer demand has begun to moderate slightly based on the latest data (shown in green), showings are still above 2019 levels. And since 2019 was such a strong year for the housing market, this helps show that the market isn’t crashing – it’s just at a turning point that’s moving back toward more pre-pandemic levels. Existing Home Sales Then and Now Headlines are also talking about how existing home sales are declining, but perspective matters. Here’s a look at existing home sales going all the way back to 2019 using data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) (see graph below): Again, a similar story emerges. The pandemic numbers (shown in blue) beat the more typical year of 2019 home sales (shown in gray). And according to the latest projections for 2022 (shown in green), the market is on pace to close this year with more home sales than 2019 as well. It’s important to compare today not to the abnormal pandemic years, but to the most recent normal year to show the current housing market is still strong. First American sums it up like this: “. . . today’s housing market looks a lot like the 2019 housing market, which was the strongest housing market in a decade at the time.” Bottom Line If recent headlines are generating any concerns, look at a more typical year for perspective. The current market is not a crash or correction. It’s just a turning point toward more typical, pre-pandemic levels. Let’s connect if you have any questions about our local market and what it means for you when you buy or sell this year.

What Does the Rest of the Year Hold for the Housing Market? If you’re thinking of buying or selling a house, you’re at an exciting decision point. And anytime you make a big decision like that, one thing you should always consider is timing. So, what does the rest of the year hold for the housing market? Here’s what experts have to say. The Number of Homes Available for Sale Is Likely To Grow There are early signs housing inventory is starting to grow and experts say that should continue in the months ahead. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com: “The gap between this year’s homes for sale and last year’s is one-fifth the size that it was at the beginning of the year. The catch up is likely to continue, . . . This growth will mean more options for shoppers than they’ve had in a while, even though inventory continues to lag pre-pandemic normal.” As a buyer, having more options is welcome news. Just remember, housing supply is still low, so be ready to act fast and put in your best offer up front. As a seller, your house may soon face more competition when other sellers list their homes. But the good news is, if you’re also buying your next home, having more options to choose from should make that move-up process easier. Mortgage Rates Will Likely Continue To Respond to Inflationary Pressures Experts also agree inflation should continue to drive up mortgage rates, albeit more moderately. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says: “… ongoing inflationary pressure remains likely to push mortgage rates even higher in the months to come.”   As a buyer, work with trusted real estate professionals, including your lender, so you can learn how rising mortgage rate environments impact your purchasing power. It may make sense to buy now before it costs more to do so, if you’re ready. As a seller, rising mortgage rates are motivating some homeowners to make a move up sooner rather than later. If you’re planning to buy your next home, talk to a trusted real estate advisor to decide how to time your move. Home Prices Are Projected To Continue To Climb Home prices are forecast to keep appreciating because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers in the market. That said, experts agree the pace of that appreciation should moderate – but home prices won’t fall. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains: “Prices throughout the country have surged for the better part of two years, including in the first quarter of 2022. . . Given the extremely low inventory, we're unlikely to see price declines, but appreciation should slow in the coming months.”  As a buyer, continued home price appreciation means it’ll cost you more to buy the longer you wait. But it also gives you peace of mind that, once you do buy a home, it will likely grow in value. That makes it historically a good investment and a strong hedge against inflation. As a seller, price appreciation is great news for the value of your home. Again, lean on a professional to strike the right balance of the best conditions possible for both selling your house and buying your next one. Bottom Line Whether you’re a homebuyer or seller, you need to know what’s happening in the housing market, so you can make the most informed decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss your goals and what lies ahead, so you can pick your best time to make a move.

Sellers Have an Opportunity with Today’s Home Prices As mortgage rates started to rise this year, many homeowners began to wonder if the value of their homes would fall. Here’s the good news. Historically, when mortgage rates rise by a percentage point or more, home values continue to appreciate. The latest data on home prices seems to confirm that trend. According to data from CoreLogic, home price appreciation has been re-accelerating since November. The graph below shows this increase in home price appreciation in green: This is largely due to an ongoing imbalance in supply and demand. Specifically, housing supply is still low, and demand is high. As mortgage rates started to rise this year, many homebuyers rushed to make their purchases before those rates could climb higher. The increased competition drove home prices up even more. Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains: “Home price growth continued to gain speed in early spring, as eager buyers tried to get in front of the mortgage rate surge.” And experts say prices are forecast to continue appreciating, just at a more moderate pace moving forward. A recent article from Fortune says: “. . . the swift move up in mortgage rates . . . doesn’t mean home prices are about to crash. In fact, every major real estate firm with a publicly released forecast model . . . still predicts home prices will climb further this year.” What This Means for You If you’re thinking about selling your house, you should know you have a great opportunity to list your home and capitalize on today’s home price appreciation. As prices rise, so does the value of your home, which gives your equity a big boost. When you sell, you can use that equity toward the purchase of your next home. And at today’s record-level of appreciation, that equity may be enough to cover some (if not all) of your down payment. Bottom Line History shows rising mortgage rates have not had a negative impact on home prices. Now is still a great time to sell your house thanks to ongoing price appreciation. When you’re ready to find out how much equity you have in your current home and what’s happening with home prices in your local area, let’s connect.

How Homeownership Can Bring You Joy If you're trying to decide whether to rent or buy a home, you're probably weighing a few different factors. The financial benefits of homeownership might be one of the reasons you want to make a purchase if you’re a renter, but the decision can also be motivated by having a place that’s uniquely your own. If you want to express yourself by upgrading and customizing your living space but are feeling held back by your rental agreement, it might be time to consider the perks of owning your home. A Little Change Can Bring Lots of Joy There’s a significant level of pride that comes from owning a home. That’s because it’s a space that truly belongs to you. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows making updates or remodeling your home can help you feel more at ease and comfortable in your living space. NAR measures this with a Joy Score that indicates how much happiness specific home upgrades bring. According to NAR: “There were numerous interior projects that received a perfect Joy Score of 10: paint entire interior of home, paint one room of home, add a new home office, hardwood flooring refinish, new wood flooring, closet renovation, insulation upgrade, and attic conversion to living area.” The report also breaks down just how much each of these projects can enhance your emotional attachment to your home, even leading you to want to spend even more time in the space (see graph below): And while many of the items NAR highlights are larger tasks, some, like painting rooms, are much smaller. Even those quicker projects can still bring you a greater sense of joy and accomplishment. Not to mention when you make upgrades in your home, you could be increasing its value which also gives your net worth a boost if you invest your time and effort wisely. You’re Free To Update Your Home to Your Heart’s Content These types of updates can result in additional happiness when you complete them, but there’s another reason you can feel good as a homeowner. In most situations, you’re free to renovate or update the interior of your home without needing additional permission. But as Business Insider points out, renters may not have the same freedom: “Your landlord won't always approve changes when you rent. But you have the power to update the home when you're the owner. (Just make sure any big changes are approved by your homeowner's association, if necessary.)” If you do make changes as a renter, there’s a good chance you’ll need to revert them back at the end of your lease based on your rental agreement. That can add additional costs when you move out. That’s one major benefit of owning your own home. Unless there are specific homeowner’s association requirements, you typically won’t have to worry about the changes you can and can’t make. Bottom Line Deciding whether to rent or buy is a personal decision. The financial benefits are critical, but don’t overlook the emotional impact homeownership can have. Let’s connect to discuss all the benefits you can enjoy when you purchase your own home.

What You Actually Need To Know About the Number of Foreclosures in Today’s Housing Market While you may have seen recent stories about the volume of foreclosures today, context is important. During the pandemic, many homeowners were able to pause their mortgage payments using the forbearance program. The goal was to help homeowners financially during the uncertainty created by the health crisis. When the forbearance program began, many experts were concerned it would result in a wave of foreclosures coming to the market, as there was after the housing crash in 2008. Here’s a look at why the number of foreclosures we’re seeing today is nothing like the last time. 1. There Are Fewer Homeowners in Trouble Today’s data shows that most homeowners are exiting their forbearance plan either fully caught up on payments or with a plan from the bank that restructured their loan in a way that allowed them to start making payments again. The graph below depicts those findings from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): The same MBA report mentioned above estimates there are approximately 525,000 homeowners who remain in forbearance today. Thankfully, those people still have the chance to work out a suitable repayment plan with the servicing company that represents their lender. 2. Most Homeowners Have Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes For those who are exiting the forbearance program without a plan in place, many will have enough equity to sell their homes instead of facing foreclosures. Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. Marina Walsh, CMB, Vice President of Industry Analysis at MBA, says: “Given the nation’s limited housing inventory and the variety of home retention and foreclosure alternatives on the table across various loan types, . . . Borrowers have more choices today to either stay in their homes or sell without resorting to a foreclosure.” 3. There Have Been Fewer Foreclosures over the Last Two Years One of the seldom-reported benefits of the forbearance program was it gave homeowners facing difficulties an extra two years to get their finances in order and work out a plan with their lender. That helped prevent the foreclosures that normally would have come to the market had the new forbearance program not been available. Even as people leave the forbearance program, there are still fewer foreclosures happening today than before the pandemic. That means, while there are more foreclosures now compared to last year (when foreclosures were paused), the number is still well below what the housing market has seen in a more typical year, like 2017-2019 (see graph below): 4. The Current Market Can Easily Absorb New Listings When the foreclosures in 2008 hit the market, they added to the oversupply of houses that were already for sale. It’s exactly the opposite today. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reveals: “Total housing inventory at the end of March totaled 950,000 units, up 11.8% from February and down 9.5% from one year ago (1.05 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.0-month supply at the present sales pace, up from 1.7 months in February and down from 2.1 months in March 2021.” A balanced market would have approximately a six-month supply of inventory. At 2.0 months, today’s housing market is severely understocked. Even if one million homes enter the market, there still won’t be enough inventory to meet the current demand. Bottom Line If you see headlines about the increasing number of foreclosures today, remember context is important. While it’s true the number of foreclosures is higher now than it was last year, foreclosures are still well below pre-pandemic years. If you have questions, let’s connect to talk through the latest market conditions and what they mean for you.

Are There More Homes Coming to the Market? According to a recent survey from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), one of the top challenges buyers face in today’s housing market is finding a home that meets their needs. That’s largely because the inventory of homes for sale is so low today. If you’re looking to buy a home, you may have noticed this yourself. But there is good news. Recent data shows more sellers are listing their houses this season, which may give you more options for your home search. Early Signs Inventory May Be Growing The latest data from realtor.com shows the number of listings coming onto the market, known in the industry as “new listings,” has increased since the start of the year (see graph below): This indicates more sellers are listing their homes for sale each month this year. And according to realtor.com, this growth is expected to continue. Their research finds the majority of potential sellers plan to list their homes over the next six months. Realtor.com says: “. . . markets may see a noticeable bump in the number of homes for sale as we move through spring and into summer. A majority of homeowners planning to sell this year indicated that they aim to list in the next six months, with almost 10% having already placed their properties on the market.” Homes Are Still Selling Quickly But while new listings are increasing, it’s important to know they’re also selling quickly. The latest Realtors Confidence Index from NAR shows the median days on market for recently sold homes since the beginning of the year (see chart below). The time on market has decreased month-over-month. That means homes are selling even faster than they did the previous month. What That Means for You While a low-inventory market is difficult to navigate as a buyer, there is hope. The growing number of new listings and the expectation more sellers will list their homes in the coming months is great news if you’ve had a hard time finding a home that fits your needs. Just remember, those new listings are going fast. That means you’ll want to keep your foot on the gas and be ready to act if you find a home you love this season. Your agent can help you stay on top of the latest listings in your area so you can find the home that’s right for you and submit your strongest offer as quickly as possible. Bottom Line If you’ve been having a hard time finding your dream home, stick with your search. More options are coming to market and your ideal home could be one of them. Let’s connect so you can stay up to date on the latest listings in our market, so you can be ready to move fast when you find the one that’s right for you.

Will Home Prices Fall This Year? Here’s What Experts Say. Many people are wondering: will home prices fall this year? Whether you’re a potential homebuyer, seller, or both, the answer to this question matters for you. Let’s break down what’s happening with home prices, where experts say they’re headed, and how this impacts your homeownership goals. What’s Happening with Home Prices?  Home prices have seen 121 consecutive months of year-over-year increases. CoreLogic says: “Price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year of 2021, up from the 2020 full year average of 6%.” So why are prices climbing so much? It’s because there are more buyers than there are homes for sale. This imbalance is expected to maintain that upward pressure on home prices because homes for sale are a hot commodity in today’s low-inventory housing market. Where Do Experts Say Prices Will Go from Here? Experts say the housing market isn’t set up for a price decline due to that ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. In the latest home price forecasts for 2022, they’re calling for ongoing appreciation throughout the year (see graph below): While the experts are forecasting more moderate price appreciation, the 2022 projections show price gains will remain strong throughout this year. First American explains it like this: “While house price growth is expected to moderate from the rapid pace of 2021, strong home buyer demand against a backdrop of historically tight inventory of homes for sale will likely keep appreciation positive in the coming year.” What Does That Mean for You? The biggest takeaway is that none of the experts are projecting depreciation. If you’re a homeowner thinking about selling, the higher price appreciation over the last two years has been great for your home’s value, but it’s also something you should factor in when planning your next steps. If you’ll also be buying a home after selling your current house, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall. Waiting will only cost you more in the long run because climbing mortgage rates and rising home prices will have an impact on your next home purchase. Freddie Mac says: “If you’re thinking about waiting until next year and that maybe rates are higher, but you’ll get a deal on prices – well that’s risky. It may be more advantageous to purchase this year relative to waiting until 2023 at this time.” Bottom Line If you’re thinking of selling to move up, you shouldn’t wait for prices to fall. Experts say prices will continue to appreciate this year. That means, if you’re ready, buying your next home before prices climb further may make the most financial sense. Let’s connect to begin the process of selling your current home and looking for your next one before prices rise higher.

How Today’s Mortgage Rates Impact Your Home Purchase If you’re planning to buy a home, it’s critical to understand the relationship between mortgage rates and your purchasing power. Purchasing power is the amount of home you can afford to buy that’s within your financial reach. Mortgage rates directly impact the monthly payment you’ll have on the home you purchase. So, when rates rise, so does the monthly payment you’re able to lock in on your home loan. In a rising-rate environment like we’re in today, that could limit your future purchasing power. Today, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is above 5%, and in the near term, experts say that’ll likely go up in the months ahead. You have the opportunity to get ahead of that increase if you buy now before that impacts your purchasing power. Mortgage Rates Play a Large Role in Your Home Search The chart below can help you understand the general relationship between mortgage rates and a typical monthly mortgage payment within a range of loan amounts. Let’s say your budget allows for a monthly mortgage payment in the $2,100-$2,200 range. The green in the chart indicates a payment within that range, while the red is a payment that exceeds it (see chart below): As the chart shows, you’re more likely to exceed your target payment range as mortgage rates increase unless you pursue a lower home loan amount. If you’re ready to buy a home, use this as your motivation to purchase now so you can get ahead of rising rates before you have to make the decision to decrease what you borrow in order to stay comfortably within your budget. Work with Trusted Advisors To Know Your Budget and Make a Plan It’s critical to keep your budget top of mind as you’re searching for a home. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, puts it best, advising that buyers should: “Get preapproved with where rates are today, but also consider what would happen if rates were to go up, say another quarter of a point, . . . Know what that would do to your monthly costs and how comfortable you are with that, so that if rates do move higher, you already know how you need to adjust in response.” No matter what, the best strategy is to work with your real estate advisor and a trusted lender to create a plan that takes rising mortgage rates into consideration. Together, you can look at your budget based on where rates are today and craft a strategy so you’re ready to adjust as rates change. Bottom Line Even small increases in mortgage rates can impact your purchasing power. If you’re in the process of buying a home, it’s more important than ever to have a strong plan. Let’s connect so you have a trusted real estate advisor and a lender on your side who can help you strategize to achieve your dream of homeownership this season.

Your House Could Be Closer to List-Ready Than You Think One of the biggest concerns for a homeowner looking to sell is the time they’ll have to put in before listing their house. If that’s the case for you, you should know – your home might be closer to list-ready than you think in today’s housing market. A survey of recent sellers from realtor.com finds that many were able to get their house ready in less than a month. It says: “With many homeowners expecting a quick sale, and in many cases a lack of contingencies, the preparation process took less than a month for over 50% of home sellers this past year, with 20% completing it in less than two weeks.” Those sellers expecting to sell quickly are following recent buyer trends. With mortgage rates and home prices rising, buyers in today’s market are serious about finding a home quickly. But with the limited number of homes for sale, there are very few options for those buyers to choose from. That means many may be willing to take on projects after they purchase. Because of this, you may be able to focus on less time-consuming tasks before putting your house on the market. According to the survey mentioned above, some of the top things recent sellers completed before listing over the past year include landscaping, making minor cosmetic updates, and touching-up paint (see image below): A Real Estate Advisor Will Help Streamline the Process and Keep You Focused Of course, each situation is different, and knowing what repairs or updates your house needs to stand out in your local area is critical. That’s where a trusted real estate professional comes in. In a recent article, NextAdvisor explains: “. . . Real estate can be hyper-local, and demand can vary from one neighborhood to the next. It’s a good idea to work with a local real estate professional to determine an ideal listing price and if any improvements or repairs need to be completed before putting your home on the market.” Your trusted real estate advisor knows the ins and outs of the market in your specific area. They’ll help you identify the places where you should and shouldn’t spend your time and money – and that can enable you to list quickly. Bottom Line If you’re ready to take advantage of the incredible conditions for sellers in today’s real estate market but are worried about the time it’ll take to get your home ready, you might be closer than you think. Let’s connect so you can see what you need to do before listing your house today.

How Homeownership Can Help Shield You from Inflation If you’re following along with the news today, you’ve likely heard about rising inflation. You’re also likely feeling the impact in your day-to-day life as prices go up for gas, groceries, and more. These rising consumer costs can put a pinch on your wallet and make you re-evaluate any big purchases you have planned to ensure they’re still worthwhile. If you’ve been thinking about purchasing a home this year, you’re probably wondering if you should continue down that path or if it makes more sense to wait. While the answer depends on your situation, here’s how homeownership can help you combat the rising costs that come with inflation. Homeownership Offers Stability and Security Investopedia explains that during a period of high inflation, prices rise across the board. That’s true for things like food, entertainment, and other goods and services, even housing. Both rental prices and home prices are on the rise. So, as a buyer, how can you protect yourself from increasing costs? The answer lies in homeownership. Buying a home allows you to stabilize what’s typically your biggest monthly expense: your housing cost. If you get a fixed-rate mortgage on your home, you lock in your monthly payment for the duration of your loan, often 15 to 30 years. James Royal, Senior Wealth Management Reporter at Bankrate, says: “A fixed-rate mortgage allows you to maintain the biggest portion of housing expenses at the same payment. Sure, property taxes will rise and other expenses may creep up, but your monthly housing payment remains the same.”  So even if other prices rise, your housing payment will be a reliable amount that can help keep your budget in check. If you rent, you don’t have that same benefit, and you won’t be protected from rising housing costs. Use Home Price Appreciation to Your Benefit While it’s true rising mortgage rates and home prices mean buying a house today costs more than it did a year ago, you still have an opportunity to set yourself up for a long-term win. Buying now lets you lock in at today’s rates and prices before both climb higher. In inflationary times, it’s especially important to invest your money in an asset that traditionally holds or grows in value. The graph below shows how home price appreciation outperformed inflation in most decades going all the way back to the seventies – making homeownership a historically strong hedge against inflation (see graph below): So, what does that mean for you? Today, experts say home prices will only go up from here thanks to the ongoing imbalance in supply and demand. Once you buy a house, any home price appreciation that does occur will be good for your equity and your net worth. And since homes are typically assets that grow in value (even in inflationary times), you have peace of mind that history shows your investment is a strong one. Bottom Line If you’re ready to buy a home, it may make sense to move forward with your plans despite rising inflation. If you want expert advice on your specific situation and how to time your purchase, let’s connect.

What You Need To Know About Selling in a Sellers’ Market Even if you haven’t been following real estate news, you’ve likely heard about the current sellers’ market. That’s because there’s a lot of talk about how strong market conditions are for people who want to sell their houses. But if you’re thinking about listing your house, you probably want to know: what does being in a sellers’ market really mean? What Is a Sellers’ Market? The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still very low. There’s a 2-month supply of homes at the current sales pace. Historically, a 6-month supply is necessary for a normal or neutral market where there are enough homes available for active buyers. That puts today deep in sellers’ market territory (see graph below): What Does This Mean for You When You Sell? When the supply of houses for sale is as low as it is right now, it’s much harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. That creates increased competition among purchasers which can lead to more bidding wars. And if buyers know they may be entering a bidding war, they’re going to do their best to submit a very attractive offer upfront. This could drive the final price of your house up. And because mortgage rates and home prices are climbing, serious buyers are motivated to make their purchase soon, before those two things rise further. That means, if you put your house on the market while supply is still low, it will likely get a lot of attention from competitive buyers. Bottom Line The current real estate market has incredible opportunities for homeowners looking to make a move. Listing your house this season means you’ll be in front of serious buyers who are ready to buy. Let’s connect so you can jumpstart the selling process.