Brant Point Construction Begins Denholtz Properties has broken ground on a collection of 16 luxury homes in Atlantic Highlands, seeking to lure buyers with what it describes as Nantucket-style living along Sandy Hook Bay. Known as Brant Point, the custom-designed, single-family dwellings will occupy seven acres just west of Avenue D and north of Center Avenue. Each will have four bedrooms and multiple bathrooms, with floorplans ranging from 2,601 to 3,473 square feet and outdoor spaces for year-round entertainment, Denholtz said, while residents will have easy access to Seastreak Ferry service providing a one-hour trip to New York City. The Red Bank-based developer joined project partners, investors and prospective residents this week to mark the start of construction at the property, noting that the first homes are slated to be completed in early 2025. “We are thrilled to begin construction of Brant Point, a community that will epitomize coastal living at its finest,” said Steven Denholtz, CEO of Denholtz Properties. “With its stunning views and carefully crafted homes, Brant Point offers residents a harmonious blend of Nantucket-inspired charm and modern luxury. We are confident that this enclave will not only redefine waterfront living in Atlantic Highlands but also set a new standard for coastal communities throughout Monmouth County.” The firm has tapped Deborah James of Sotheby’s International Realty as sales director for the project, which was designed by Spiezle Architectural Group and will have touches such as a slate feature wall with a gas fireplace, a full chef’s kitchen with an open pantry and landscaping with an irrigation system. Some homes will also have elevator options and two-car garages, while residents have the option to add a gunite pool. Lead Dog Custom Homes, a Red Bank-based luxury homebuilder, is managing construction.

Netflix Attempt to Move Beyond Screens Relies on This Empty Mall Department Store Streamer Shows One Way Struggling Shopping Venues Get Repurposed Netflix plans to repurpose a 120,000-square-foot former Lord & Taylor store at the King of Prussia mall into one of its first Netflix Houses. (CoStar) March 26, 2024 | 5:09 P.M. Streaming giant Netflix plans to transform a vacant Lord & Taylor store into one of its first brick-and-mortar entertainment venues, putting on view the latest type of repurposing across the country of defunct department-store mall locations. The Los Gatos, California-based company said it will turn the 120,000-square-foot space at the King of Prussia mall in Pennsylvania into what it's calling Netflix House. The site will include ticketed and non-ticketed experiences for the public, "themed around the Netflix shows most beloved by fans," as the firm put it in its application to Upper Merion Township officials. Netflix House seeks to include permanent retail and food-and-beverage space, a theater, escape rooms, mixed reality games, live events, and other activities. "Overall, I think [Netflix House is] a major positive for the market," Scott Gabrielsen, a CBRE executive vice president in greater Philadelphia who wasn't involved in the deal, said in an email to CoStar News. "It is a large block of space absorption that further supports that King of Prussia is one of the most highly amenitized submarkets in the region." Former anchor stores in U.S. malls are being repurposed for use by not only expanding retailers but for healthcare facilities, housing and entertainment venues, so-called experiential retail that offers visitors activities to engage in. The King of Prussia mall is owned by Simon Property Group, one of the retail landlords around the country that has been reinventing its properties as mixed-use centers with varied tenant rosters. Netflix House will be within driving distance of the large studio complex that the streaming service will be developing at Fort Monmouth, New Jersey. (Netflix)   Netflix House fits that strategy, though Simon doesn't actually own the former Lord & Taylor at 180 N. Gulph Road at its regional mall: retail company HBC owns it, as well as many of the liquidated chain's former store sites. And HBC has been aggressively finding new tenants and new uses for those anchor stores, taking traditional and nontraditional routes to fill those spaces. HBC — the parent of the Hudson's Bay and Saks Fifth Avenue chains — and Simon didn't respond to emails from CoStar News seeking comment on Tuesday. Netflix declined to comment. The Philadelphia Business Journal earlier reported on Netflix's plans at the King of Prussia Mall. Past Pop-Ups The subscription-based video service has been experimenting with temporary retail locations, and pop-ups related to its hit TV shows, nationally for several years. But in October, Netflix said it would be debuting two permanent brick-and-mortar locations featuring retail and entertainment tied to its most popular programming. At that time, Netflix said those sites would open in 2025 but didn't disclose the locations. In its application for local approval at King of Prussia, Netflix said it will completely renovate the former Lord & Taylor as "'a multi-format entertainment venue that will be among the first of its kind." The site will have large, medium and small experience rooms as well as an "immersive" theater that will feature "large amounts of scenery, special effects, sound effects and music, props and live actors." The company also provided a detailed "matrix" of what it was plans to offer at the various spaces within Netflix House. It includes: Movie and TV show screenings, which might include premiere events and question-and-answer sessions with actors. A theatrical, seated multicourse dining or self-guided food-and-beverage environment, programmed with media projection, props, music and live performers. A themed children's playground or activity zone, containing obstacle courses, soft-touch materials and themed scenery. A selection of arcade-style gaming consoles in one room for individual play. A mixed-reality experience that may include wearables such as headsets, glasses, or other tech devices. A proscenium-style play, event or concert with performance, talk, music, sound, lighting and special effects. Indoor recreational sports and gaming activities, such as mini-golf, ice-skating and roller-skating. Food or "maker" classes for guests to learn new skills by participating in a guided workshop. New Uses for Lord & Taylor Such activities "will rotate through Netflix House, allowing fans to regularly experience new and different opportunities to engage," Netflix said. J.C. Penney just relocated and opened a store at a vacant Lord & Taylor location at the Willowbrook mall in New Jersey. (Linda Moss/CoStar) The planned Netflix House is about 90 miles away, an 1 ½-hour drive, from Fort Monmouth in New Jersey, where Netflix is investing roughly $1 billion to build a large TV-and-movie studio complex on a 300-acre site spanning Eatontown and Oceanport. Netflix isn't the first video content provider to try to monetize — and generate interest and loyalty to — its programming with brick-and-mortar locations. Walt Disney Co., Universal, and Nickelodeon have their theme parks, offering experiences to visitors. And Disney has stores, selling merchandise. Netflix has sold goods related to its franchises, including shows such as "Stranger Things," as well. HBC had once been the owner of the Lord & Taylor department stores, a chain that was liquidated with all its stores closed. But HBC retained ownership of a number of the vacant physical stores, and has had success in re-activating them. For example, J.C. Penney this month relocated one of its stores to a vacant Lord & Taylor space that HBC owns at the Willowbrook mall in Wayne, New Jersey. HBC is also redeveloping a former Lord & Taylor location at 609 North Ave. in Westfield, New Jersey, into a mixed-use property with office buildings, retail space and 205 residential units. And in 2022, HBC announced plans to convert three former Lord & Taylor stores in the Boston area into space for life science tenants. Netflix's plan for the King of Prussia mall won the approval of the Upper Merion Township Planning Commission on March 13 and is slated to go before the Board of Supervisors for a vote on April 11.

  LONG BRANCH —Kushner officially broke ground yesterday, March 27, on a $130 million mixed-use residential and retail development in Long Branch. The project is poised to infuse new vitality into the city's Lower Broadway corridor, delivering 299 designer rental residences and upscale amenities, along with a highly anticipated SuperFresh grocery market and neighborhood café.   The long-awaited venture is set to be a lynchpin in connecting Lower Broadway to the city’s active beachfront, integrating with Kushner's Pier Village oceanfront community including the Wave Resort & Spa.Principals of Kushner hosted Long Branch Mayor John Pallone, Sen. Vin Gopal (D-11), fellow council members and other local dignitaries to mark the commencement of the project.Laurent Morali, CEO of Kushner, said, “Long Branch has always represented a long-term investment for us. This new project reinforces our overarching vision of establishing a thriving year-round destination by introducing premium residential, retail, and neighborhood services that support the community throughout every season."   Located at 118-119 Broadway and designed by Minno + Wasko Architects and Planners, the development will comprise two, four-story buildings with a mix of studio, one-, two- and three-bedroom homes. A rich array of upscale lifestyle amenities and social spaces spanning both properties will complement the residences. These include a 1,400-square-foot coworking lounge, fitness center, dedicated yoga room, golf simulator, rooftop terraces with ocean views, social lounges, pet spa, kids' room, grilling stations, fire pits and an outdoor pool.   Nicole Kushner Meyer, President of Kushner, added, “This development represents a significant stride in breathing new life into the downtown while underscoring Kushner’s unwavering commitment to the Long Branch community. Our focus extends beyond residential development, aiming to transform this underutilized land into new uses that will serve as an extension of Pier Village, including a supermarket catering to the year-round community.”Although efforts to revitalize Lower Broadway have been in the works for years as part of the City’s Redevelopment Plan, Kushner's involvement began in September 2022, diligently working with municipal agencies to advance the project.Michael Sommer, Chief Development Officer of Kushner, expressed excitement, stating, “We’re thrilled to expand our investment in the City of Long Branch and proud to have successfully propelled this critical project forward. The active involvement and guidance from Mayor John Pallone, the City Council, the Planning Board, the City Attorney, and the City Business Administrator were all instrumental, and we look forward to delivering another valuable asset to the community.”   State Sen. Vin Gopal praised the Kushner team for stepping up to revitalize a neighborhood that hasn’t shared in the investments made along the oceanfront.“This has been a long time coming,” said Sen. Gopal. “This property, as it gets going, is going to play an incredible role in the rest of Long Branch. We’ve seen other communities over the last 20 years — Asbury Park, Red Bank — really progress and this has been the piece to really unite Long Branch and make sure we can do that. The properties all across here, their values are going to go up because of this.”Since acquiring Pier Village in 2014, Kushner has continually expanded its offerings, which now encompasses 500 luxury apartments, 133,000 square feet of retail and two hotels.   This groundbreaking marks what promises to be an active year for Kushner in Monmouth County. The developer is actively redeveloping the Monmouth Mall in Eatontown into what is now known as Monmouth Square, reimagining it as a modern town center with 1,000 residential units, 900,000 square feet of retail, an active public green and pedestrian pathways.   Later this year, Kushner will break ground on a new residential development in Colts Neck, featuring 15 three-story buildings with 360 residences and upscale amenities.About KushnerKushner is a multi-generational real estate development and management firm headquartered in New York City. The company’s diverse portfolio encompasses residential, commercial, retail and hospitality with approximately 10,000 apartments under development and more than 25,000 apartments under ownership across 14 states.

30YR Fixed 6.91% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.47% +0.00%   Little Change in Mortgage Application Volume, Despite Lower Rates The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index moved lower last week, apparently indifferent to a slight improvement in mortgage interest rates. The Index, which measures loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index declined 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2.0 percent from the previous week and was 9.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 30.8 percent of total applications compared to 31.2 percent the previous week.View Refinance Applications Chart The Purchase Index ticked down 0.2 percent both before and after its seasonal adjustment.  It was 16.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago.View Purchase Applications Chart “Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate edged lower to 6.93 percent, but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications were essentially unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the market. Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6 percent by the end of the year. Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term refinances.”  Additional Highlights from the MBA Weekly Mortgage Application Survey Loan sizes slipped slightly lower last week. The average was $387,000, down from $389,800 and purchase loans averaged $441,800 compared to $445,000. FHA and the VA applications each accounted for a 12.0 percent share of the total, declining 0.1-point from the prior week. The USDA share remained at 0.5 percent. The average contract interest rate (6.93 percent) for conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) was 4 basis points lower than a week earlier. Points decreased to 0.60 from 0.64. Jumbo 30-year FRM had an average interest rate of 7.14 percent, unchanged week-over-week. Points dropped to 0.38 from 0.54. The average contract interest rate for 30-year FRM backed by the FHA decreased to 6.75 percent from 6.89 percent, with points decreasing to 0.97 from 1.04 Fifteen-year FRM rates were down 3 basis points from the previous week to an average of 6.46 percent with points increasing to 0.75 from 0.70. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) decreased to 6.27 percent from 6.33 percent. Points increased to 0.6 from 0.55.   The ARM share of activity moved from 7.2 percent of applications to 7.0 percent.

30YR Fixed 6.91% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.47% +0.00%   New Home Sales Decline Slightly, Prices Too Sales of newly constructed homes were virtually unchanged in February. The 662,000 seasonally adjusted annual units recorded in during the month was down by 2,000 units or 0.3 percent from the rate in January. This did, however, put sales 5.9 percent higher than they were in February 2023. The report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development estimated that, before adjustment, sales for the month totaled 60,000 units compared to 57,000 the previous month and 56,000 in February of last year. Thus far this year, sales of new homes are up 4.4 percent over the same period in 2023 at 117,000 units. The median price of houses sold during the reporting period was $400,500 and the average price was $485,000. In February 2023 the relative prices were $433,300 and $499,100. At the end of February there were an estimated 451,000 new homes available for sale. This is a projected 8.4-month supply at the current sales pace and is unchanged from the inventory level one year earlier. Robert Dietz, economist for the National Association of Home Builders noted, “Completed and ready-to-occupy inventory has increased 23 percent over the last year, rising to 85,000 homes. Homes advertised for sale but not started construction have increased almost 18 percent over the last year to 106,000. In contrast, homes available for sale that are under construction have declined 2 percent to 272,000.” New home sales plunged by 31.5 percent from January to February in the Northeast and were 60.9 percent lower year-over-year. The Midwest posted a 2.4 percent decline for the month, but sales increased 15.3 percent on an annual basis. Sales in the South rose 3.7 percent compared to January but were 10.0 percent lower for the year. The West posted increases of 2.3 percent and 43.4 percent from the two earlier periods.

Curves have been steadily making waves in the interior design world from bean-shaped sofas to swivel chairs and windows, but softer edges are now making their way into the kitchen too — and they just may be here to stay. In lieu of geometric shapes, some designers are opting for rounded kitchen islands, shapely drawers, and even curvy kitchen cabinets. Steering clear of harsh lines can create a more playful cooking, hosting, and entertaining space, while still elevating the room, particularly when it comes to cabinetry. So we talked to design experts about the trend, where it’s going, and how to get the look.   “I think the standard kitchen cabinets and boxiness of kitchens have gotten boring to some,” says Amber Guyton, the interior designer behind Blessed Little Bungalow. “I’m a big fan of adding curves and non-traditional, unique elements to kitchens that will give visual interest without affecting its functionality.”   Etsy Trend Expert Dayna Isom Johnson has also noticed an uptick in curves and rounded shapes when it comes to general kitchen decor like twisted candles and rounded lighting fixtures. “We started to see wavy, curvy, and relaxed edges in home decor gaining popularity late last year, and it’s only grown since,” explains Johnson. “It’s become a go-to trend because it brings together elements of fluidity, texture, and personality that can be carried out throughout the kitchen space.”   Trends come and go, so if you’re skeptical about a more rounded kitchen renovation, especially if you don’t have an open floor plan, straying from traditional clean lines may actually offer some added practicality in addition to aesthetic appeal. Guyton uses a curved cabinet — seen above — for extra storage space to store wine, barware, cookbooks, and seasonal dining decor, keeping the objects closed off from the room, but also visually open with glass doors.  “Their design facilitates efficient space utilization, particularly in corners, maximizing storage capacity in areas that might pose challenges for standard, rectangular cabinets,” explains Ginger Curtis, designer and CEO of Urbanology Designs.   Particularly with open-concept floor plans, the curves create a softer transition between spaces such as your kitchen and your living area. However, while the space will look more blended, the curvy shape will undoubtedly become the centerpiece of the room. “Curved cabinets can also soften the overall design, fostering a welcoming atmosphere. Their high degree of customization allows for integration into various kitchen styles making them a versatile choice,” says Curtis. “A curved cabinet can serve as a focal point, drawing attention and imparting a touch of sophistication to the kitchen, showcasing an innovative and unique design choice that adds a sense of freshness and creativity.”   Despite their sophisticated beauty, curved cabinets can be a larger expense than their sleek and boxy counterparts, especially if you’re looking to get them custom made for your space. If you’re not, there are plenty of options on Amazon like this arched bookshelf, and on Urban Outfitters like this stunning storage cabinet. There are some alternative ideas if you want to add more curves to your kitchen without doing an entire cabinetry renovation.“If this cost is too much to swallow, consider just doing the kitchen island or a curved statement piece like a wine or china cabinet, buffet, or stools to add to the space,” suggests Guyton.Johnson also recommends keeping the look cohesive by incorporating curvy objects like round cutting boards and circular decorative dishes. “This makes the rounded edges in the space look purposeful and pleasing to the eye — and the curvy designs add a touch of elegance,” explains Johnson. “We have a feeling that arches are going to be everywhere in 2024.” Time to ride the wave!

Hey there, Sellers! Let's dive into some key real estate metrics that can help you better understand the current market trends and how they can impact your selling experience.   First up, we have the Months Supply of Inventory, which sits at a low 2.01. This indicates that there is a relatively low inventory of homes on the market compared to the current level of demand. With less competition out there, your property could stand out more to potential buyers.   Next, we see a 12-Month Change in Months of Inventory of -88.5%. This means that the inventory of homes for sale has decreased significantly over the past year, creating a more competitive market for sellers. With fewer homes available, yours could attract more attention from eager buyers.   When we look at the Median Days Homes are On the Market, we see a quick turnaround time of just 27 days. This suggests that homes in this area are selling fast, which could be great news for you if you're looking to sell quickly.   The List to Sold Price Percentage is a strong 99.6%, indicating that sellers in this market are typically getting very close to their asking price when their homes sell. This could give you confidence in setting an asking price that reflects the current market conditions.   Finally, the Median Sold Price in this area is $710,000. This gives you an idea of the average price at which homes are selling, allowing you to gauge where your property might stand in comparison.   Overall, these metrics paint a picture of a fast-moving and competitive market where homes are selling quickly and close to their asking prices. If you're thinking about selling, now could be a great time to capitalize on these favorable conditions. So, get ready to showcase your property and attract those eager buyers!

30YR Fixed 6.63% +0.02% 15YR Fixed 5.96% +0.01%   Pending Home Sales Stayed Sideways Near Record Lows The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases two widely followed home sales reports.  Existing Home Sales measure transactions of homes other than new construction (i.e. previously owned and occupied homes).  The Pending Sales index is an advance indicator for Existing Homes.  It measures contract signings but not closed sales. Through a combination of historically low affordability and inventory, both metrics have been operating at the lowest levels in more than a decade (not including the temporary drop in pending sales seen at the onset of pandemic lockdowns). Today's pending sales update kept the index perfectly unchanged at those long term lows. There were small regional variations as follows: Northeast... +0.8% versus last month (down 6.4% from last year) Midwest .... +0.5% versus last month (down 2.2% from last year) South......... -2.3% versus last month (down 6.5% from last year) West.......... +4.2% versus last month (down 4.9% from last year) As seen in the chart above, the sharpest deceleration in the pace of sales is likely behind us.  Recent changes have been much smaller by comparison.  NAR is hopeful for 2024, citing the recent decline in mortgage rates. Additionally, NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted "although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest, as evidenced by a higher number of lockbox openings."

30YR Fixed 6.64% -0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.13% -0.02%   Housing Starts Hit 2023 High Housing starts, which had risen modestly in September and October, soared last month, topping 1.5 million units for the first time in 2023. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said construction began during the month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.560 million residential units. This was an increase of 14.8 percent from October’s rate of 1.359 million units. The November starts also topped those in November 2022 by 9.3 percent and were significantly higher than the consensus forecasts of both Econoday and Trading Economics at 1.360 million units. Construction started on single-family houses at an annual rate of 1.143 million units, an increase of 18.0 percent month-over-month and a whopping increase of 42.2 percent from the prior November. Multifamily starts rose 8.9 percent to 404,000 units, 33.7 percent fewer than a year earlier. Starts totaled 120,500 on an unadjusted basis, up from 113,700 in October. There were 86,100 single-family home starts compared to 80,800 the prior month. Construction permits retreated from their October level.  Units were authorized at an annual rate of 1.460 million units, a 2.5 percent decline from September but 4.1 percent higher on an annual basis. Single-family permits rose 0.7 percent to 976,000 annual units, 22.8 percent higher than in November 2022, while multifamily permits were down 9.6 percent and 21.3 percent from the two earlier periods. Analysts had expected permits to be slightly higher. The consensus from both publications was 1.470 million. Before adjustment, 108,000 permits were issued in November, 69,600 of them for single-family houses. The October totals were 125,300 and 79,800. For the year-to-date, there have been 1.363 million permits issued and 1,314 million residential units started, During the same period in 2022, permits totaled 1.555 million and starts numbered 1.458 million. Single-family starts are 7.2 percent lower than last year and multifamily starts have declined 14.5 percent. There were 117,500 homes completed during the month, 78,500 of them were single-family, down from 118,900 and 85,500 the prior month. Over the first 11 months of 2023 completions have totaled 1,302 million with 897,300 single-family and 394,100 multifamily units among them. Total completions are up 3.5 percent from the same period last year, but single-family completions are down 3.0 percent. Year-to-date, 394,100 multifamily units have come online compared to 325,100 a year ago. At the end of the reporting period, there were 1.685 million housing units under construction, 680,000 of which were single-family units. There were 276,000 unused permits, 136,000 for single-family houses. Permits declined by 34.4 percent in the Northeast compared to October and 29.4 percent from November 2022. Housing starts doubled from their October rate and were 67.4 percent higher year-over-year. The number of completions was unchanged from October but down 52.8 percent on an annual basis. The Midwest had 12.4 percent more permits approved than the prior month, but 6.8 percent fewer on an annual basis. Starts were up 1.4 percent for the month but 7.9 percent lower than the prior November. Completions increased by 4.7 percent but were still down 9.6 percent for the year. The South saw permits decline 6.7 percent for the month but increase 1.3 percent for the year, while starts rose 16.3 and 13.4 percent. Completions rose 9.1 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively. Permits were 12.1 percent and 33.1 percent higher than the two earlier periods in the West. Starts moved 2.1 percent higher than in October but were 1.7 percent below their November 2022 level. Completions fell by 3.9 percent and 5.5 percent from previous levels.    

30YR Fixed 6.62% -0.20% 15YR Fixed 6.15% -0.14%   Rates Plummet to Lowest Levels Since May, 2023 After Fed Announcement Today brought the scheduled Fed policy announcement that we've been waiting for and mortgage rates plummeted as a result.  So does that mean the Fed cut rates?  No...  The Fed kept its policy rate perfectly unchanged, as expected. In fact, it was unlikely that the Fed would have said anything significant in the actual policy announcement itself (although they did add a single word that hinted at the prevailing rate hike cycle being over).  Instead, today's focus was on the dot plot which the Fed uses to convey its outlook for the Fed Funds Rate 4 times per year. September's dot plot was bad for rates, but economic data and Fed speeches since then have led investors to expect today's dot plot to be much more friendly.  That ended up being exactly what happened with September's unfriendly changes being completely erased. 30 minutes later, Fed Chair Powell held a press conference in which he said nothing to object to the rate market's very strong reaction.  In other words, he saw the big drop in rates (as implied by bond trading levels) and didn't have a problem with it.  The market viewed this as a further endorsement of the momentum. When all was said and done the average 30yr fixed rate for a top tier scenario was nearly 0.30% lower than yesterday afternoon--one of the biggest single day drops on record.  Our rate index is now well into the high 6% range.

30YR Fixed 7.51% -0.18% 15YR Fixed 7.05% -0.05%   From 8% to Under 7.5%, Mortgage Rates Had a Near-Record Week The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was over 8% as recently as October 19th.  At the start of the present week, things weren't much better at 7.92%.  What a difference a few days make--especially the last 3.  The improvement seen on Wed-Fri is the 3rd biggest in well over a decade.  And if we throw out March 2020 (as we often do, due to unprecedented volatility relating to the onset of the pandemic), we're left with only one other example back early November of 2022. So is this some kind of seasonal pattern?  You'd be forgiven for drawing that conclusion, but in both cases, rates had recently surged to new long-term highs and then encountered surprisingly friendly economic data.  Last November it was a low reading in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that gave investors hope regarding a shift in inflation.  Unfortunately, that shift proved to be a head-fake and rates continued lower into February of 2023, it's been up, up, and away since then. This time around, scheduled data gets the credit again, but there's a more robust assortment.  The good times began to roll on Wednesday after Treasury announced lower-than-expected auction amounts (lower supply of bonds relative to expectations means lower rates, all other things being equal).  The rally gained momentum with economic data at 10am and again with the Fed announcement in the afternoon.  Thursday was mild by comparison, but kept the trajectory intact with help from slightly higher Jobless Claims data, and especially from traders exiting bets on higher rates.  In the bond market, the simple act of "no longer betting on higher rates" forces a trader to effectively enter a bet on lower rates. This morning's jobs report was in a unique position to cast a deciding vote on the past 2 days of potential exuberance.  If jobs came in higher than forecast, the drop in rates would indeed have seemed overly exuberant and we would likely be seeing a decent push back.  As it happened, jobs were weaker than forecast.  Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked up more than expected and the past few months of jobs gains were revised lower. To be sure, the labor market is still exceptionally strong, but the rate market had been pricing in something even stronger.  Today's jobs numbers increasingly paint a picture of a labor market that is cooling back down to more historically normal levels.  Some economists and pundits are concerned about even more weakness, but we're not here to pontificate on the future. All we know is that this has been some of the best 3 days of news for mortgage rates and bonds that we've seen since rates first began to launch higher 2 years ago.  Granted, the magnitude of the drop is greatly facilitated by the fact rates were at multi-decade highs in the past few weeks, but we're not complaining. The average conventional 30yr fixed rate is now back below 7.5% for top tier scenarios.  You may see a very wide variety of rates today and early next week.  This sort of volatility makes lender offerings more stratified than normal.  Some of the lenders quoting rates with discount points are already able to do so in the high 6's.  Laggards are still near 8%.   As always, keep in mind that rate indices assume a flawless scenario and most scenarios aren't flawless.  The best way to use such an index is to track the day-over-day change from a known quote or baseline.  

Your Home Equity Can Offset Affordability Challenges Are you thinking about selling your house? If so, today’s mortgage rates may be making you wonder if that’s the right decision. Some homeowners are reluctant to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate on their next home. If you’re worried about this too, know that even though rates are high right now, so is home equity. Here’s what you need to know. Bankrate explains exactly what equity is and how it grows: “Home equity is the portion of your home that you’ve paid off and own outright. It’s the difference between what the home is worth and how much is still owed on your mortgage. As your home’s value increases over the long term and you pay down the principal on the mortgage, your equity stake grows.” In other words, equity is how much your home is worth now, minus what you still owe on your home loan. How Much Equity Do Homeowners Have Now? Recently, your equity has been growing faster than you might think. To help contextualize just how much the average homeowner has, CoreLogic says: “. . . the average U.S. homeowner now has about $290,000 in equity.” That’s because, over the past few years, home prices went up significantly – and those rising prices helped your equity to accumulate faster than usual. While the market has started to normalize, there are still more people wanting to buy homes than there are homes available for sale. This high demand is causing home prices to go up again. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the Census, and ATTOM, a property data provider, nearly two-thirds (68.7%) of homeowners have either fully paid off their mortgages or have at least 50% equity (see chart below): That means nearly 70% of homeowners have a tremendous amount of equity right now. How Equity Helps with Your Affordability Concerns With today’s affordability challenges, your equity can make a big difference when you decide to move. After you sell your house, you can use the equity you've built up in your home to help you buy your next one. Here’s how: Be an all-cash buyer: If you've been living in your current home for a long time, you might have enough equity to buy a new house without having to take out a loan. If that's the case, you won't need to borrow any money or worry about mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) states: “These all-cash home buyers are happily avoiding the higher mortgage interest rates . . .” Make a larger down payment: Your equity could be used toward your next down payment. It might even be enough to let you put a larger amount down, so you won't have to borrow as much money so today’s rates become less of a sticking point. Experian explains: “Increasing your down payment lowers your principal loan amount and, consequently, your loan-to-value ratio, which could lead to a lower interest rate offer from your lender.” Bottom Line If you're thinking about moving, the equity you've built up can make a big difference, especially today. To find out how much equity you've got in your current house and how you can use it for your next home, let’s connect.

Are More Homes Coming onto the Market? An important factor shaping today’s market is the number of homes for sale. And, if you’re considering whether or not to list your house, that’s one of the biggest advantages you have right now. When housing inventory is this low, your house will stand out, especially if it’s priced right. But there are some early signs that more listings are coming. According to the latest data, new listings (homeowners who just put their house up for sale) are trending up. Here’s a look at why this is noteworthy and what it may mean for you. More Homes Are Coming onto the Market than Usual It’s well known that the busiest time in the housing market each year is the spring buying season. That’s why there’s a predictable increase in the volume of newly listed homes throughout the first half of the year. Sellers are anticipating this and ramping up for the months when buyers are most active. But, as the school year kicks off and as the holidays approach, the market cools. It’s what’s expected. But here’s what’s surprising. Based on the latest data from Realtor.com, there’s an increase in the number of sellers listing their houses later this year than usual. A peak this late in the year isn’t typical. You can see both the normal seasonal trend and the unusual August in the graph below:As Realtor.com explains: “While inventory continues to be in short supply, August witnessed an unusual uptick in newly listed homes compared to July, hopefully signaling a return in seller activity heading toward the fall season . . .” While this is only one month of data, it’s unusual enough to note. It’s still too early to say for sure if this trend will continue, but it’s something you’ll want to stay ahead of if it does. What This Means for You If you’ve been putting off selling your house, now may be the sweet spot to make your move. That’s because, if this trend continues, you’ll have more competition the longer you wait. And if your neighbor puts their house up for sale too, it means you may have to share buyers’ attention with that other homeowner. If you sell now, you can beat your neighbors to the punch. But, even with more homes coming onto the market, the market is still well below normal supply levels. And, that inventory deficit isn’t going to be reversed overnight. The graph below helps put this into context, so you can see the opportunity you still have now:  Bottom Line Even though inventory is still low, you don’t want to wait for more competition to pop up in your neighborhood. You still have an incredible opportunity if you sell your house today. Let’s connect to explore the benefits of selling now before more homes come to the market.

30YR Fixed 7.33% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 6.65% +0.01%   Mixed Results for August Construction Results of the August Residential Construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development were decidedly mixed. While permits were issued at a rate higher than anticipated, housing starts sunk to the lowest level since June 2020, Construction was started on residential units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.283 million, an 11.3 percent decline from the July level of 1.447 million units. Further, the earlier results represent a downward revision from the original estimate of 1.452 million. Both Econoday and Trading Economics had consensus forecasts of 1.44 million units. Starts were 14.8 percent lower than in August 2022. Single-family starts were down 4.3 percent from July to an annual rate of 941,000. This, however, was 2.3 percent higher than the level a year prior. Multifamily starts plunged 26.3 percent month-over-month and 41.0 percent on an annual basis to a rate of 334,000 units. Permits for residential construction rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.543 million units, a 6.9 percent increase from the 1.443 million rate in July and the highest level in ten months. Permits were, however, still down 2.7 percent on an annual basis. The number was about 100,000 units higher than consensus estimates. Construction permits were issued for 949,000 single-family homes on an annualized basis, a 2.0 percent increase from July and 7.2 percent more than a year earlier. Multifamily permits were 14.8 percent higher than the prior month but, at an annualized 535,000 units, down 17.7 percent from August 2022. On a non-adjusted basis, construction was started on 114,200 residential units, 84,100 of which were single-family houses. In July the totals were 130,600 and 91,200. Permits rose from 118,700 in July to 142,000 with single-family permits increasing from 77,800 to 88,400. Construction was completed on 126,000 units in August, an annualized rate of 1.406 million units. Single-family completions totaled 83,100, a rate of 961,000 units. At the end of August, there were 1.688 million units under construction, 676,000 of which were single-family houses. In addition, in addition, there was a backlog of 282,000 permits, 142,000 of them for single-family units. National Association of Home Builders analyst Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington noted that, as an indicator of the economic impact of housing, there are now 676,000 single-family homes under construction, down 16.3 percent from a year earlier.  “Meanwhile, there are currently over 1 million apartments under construction. This is up 13.2 percent compared to a year ago (894,000). Total housing units now under construction (single-family and multifamily combined) are 0.8 percent lower than a year ago.” Over the first eight months of 2023, housing starts have totaled 960,000, 12.5 percent fewer than at the same point in 2022.  Single-family starts are down 15.1 percent and multifamily starts are 6.6 percent lower. Year to date, 1.007 million permits have been issued, a decline of 15.8 percent. Single family permits are 15.5 percent off last year’s pace, and those for multifamily units are down 17.7 percent. So far in 2023 there have been 946,600 homes completed, up 5.8 percent YTD. However, single-family completions are down 1.5 percent for the same period while multifamily homes account for a quarter of the total, with annual growth of 26.1 percent. The level of permitting rose by 9.3 percent in the Northeast compared to July and was 14.5 percent lower on an annual basis. The region saw the only monthly gain for starts, up 1.0 percent, but the rate plunged by 45.5 percent from the previous year. The Midwest posted a 14.3 percent increase in permitting for the month but lagged the prior August by 0.5 percent. Starts declined by 7.5 and 12.1 percent from the two earlier periods. Permits were issued in the South at a rate 3.9 percent higher than in July and 1.6 percent lower year-over-year. Starts were down 4.9 and 6.1 percent, respectively. Permitting jumped 9.4 percent in the West, remaining 2.1 percent lower the in August 2022. The West posted monthly and annual declines in starts of 28.9 percent and 20.2 percent.    

Why Is Housing Inventory So Low? One question that’s top of mind if you’re thinking about making a move today is: Why is it so hard to find a house to buy? And while it may be tempting to wait it out until you have more options, that’s probably not the best strategy. Here’s why. There aren’t enough homes available for sale, but that shortage isn’t just a today problem. It’s been a challenge for years. Let’s take a look at some of the long-term and short-term factors that have contributed to this limited supply. Underbuilding Is a Long-Standing Problem One of the big reasons inventory is low is because builders haven’t been building enough homes in recent years. The graph below shows new construction for single-family homes over the past five decades, including the long-term average for housing units completed: For 14 straight years, builders didn’t construct enough homes to meet the historical average (shown in red). That underbuilding created a significant inventory deficit. And while new home construction is back on track and meeting the historical average right now, the long-term inventory problem isn’t going to be solved overnight.  Today’s Mortgage Rates Create a Lock-In Effect There are also a few factors at play in today’s market adding to the inventory challenge. The first is the mortgage rate lock-in effect. Basically, some homeowners are reluctant to sell because of where mortgage rates are right now. They don’t want to move and take on a rate that’s higher than the one they have on their current home. The chart below helps illustrate just how many homeowners may find themselves in this situation: Those homeowners need to remember their needs may matter just as much as the financial aspects of their move. Misinformation in the Media Is Creating Unnecessary Fear Another thing that’s limiting inventory right now is the fear that’s been created by the media. You’ve likely seen the negative headlines calling for a housing crash, or the ones saying home prices would fall by 20%. While neither of those things happened, the stories may have dinged your confidence enough for you to think it’s better to hold off and wait for things to calm down. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says: “In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.” That’s further limiting inventory because people who would make a move otherwise now feel hesitant to do so. But the market isn’t doom and gloom, even if the headlines are. An agent can help you separate fact from fiction.  How This Impacts You If you’re wondering how today’s low inventory affects you, it depends on if you’re selling or buying a home, or both. For buyers: A limited number of homes for sale means you’ll want to seriously consider all of your options, including various areas and housing types. A skilled professional will help you explore all of what’s available and find the home that best fits your needs. They can even coach you through casting a broader net if you need to expand your search. For sellers: Today’s low inventory actually offers incredible benefits because your house will stand out. A real estate agent can walk you through why it’s especially worthwhile to sell with these conditions. And since many sellers are also buyers, that agent is also an essential resource to help you stay up to date on the latest homes available for sale in your area so you can find your next dream home.  Bottom Line The low supply of homes for sale isn’t a new challenge. There are a number of long-term and short-term factors leading to the current inventory deficit. If you’re looking to make a move, let’s connect. That way you’ll have an expert on your side to explain how this impacts you and what’s happening with housing inventory in our area.

THRIVE Red Bank, planned for 273 Shrewsbury Avenue, will feature 32 one-bedroom apartments for neuro-diverse adults. RED BANK, NJ — Apartments enabling neuro-diverse adults to live independently - but with top-notch support - will soon be coming to Red Bank. THRIVE Red Bank, a project that will offer one-bedroom apartments in a complex on Shrewsbury Avenue, received approval last week by the Red Bank Zoning Board. The concept is the first of its kind in New Jersey, its developers say, and the approval means construction can begin on the three-story, 32-unit residential building. It is located at 273 Shrewsbury Avenue at Drs. James Parker Boulevard. A 2025 opening is planned. “We are thrilled by the board’s decision, which will enable us to provide a first-of-its-kind, neuro-inclusive apartment building for our growing New Jersey neuro-diverse population,” said John Klein, the developer/owner of the project. “This groundbreaking, supportive housing project will provide inherent benefits to its residents and the greater Red Bank community,” said Klein, who is a noted real estate developer with many philanthropic ties to Monmouth County. THRIVE Red Bank will provide one-bedroom apartments for independent living for neuro-diverse adults, with shared amenity space, including a teaching kitchen, common event space, health and wellness spaces, workout spaces and socialization areas.   The 'services cliff' And this concept will serve an important need, developers say. One in 34 individuals in New Jersey is diagnosed on the autism spectrum, and New Jersey is known for having excellent educational programs for school-age children. But many of those children fall off the “services cliff” when supports are drastically diminished at age 21. Currently, three in four of these autistic adults live with a family member, many of whom are now aging themselves, according to those behind this project. “The greatest worry for any parent of a neuro-diverse child is ‘What will happen when I can’t be there?' ” said Parents With A Plan founder and co-developer of THRIVE Red Bank, Karen Fluharty, the mother of a 21-year-old, neuro-diverse son. Parents With A Plan is a Montville-based organization founded in 2019 to expand neuro-inclusive housing environments. And Fluharty, herself a global retail real estate executive, brought all her skills as a professional - and mother - to create this project.   About THRIVE Red Bank The project, according to the Zoning Board application, is a three-story, 35,891-square-foot residential building with 32 one-bedroom dwelling units, one ground floor navigator studio apartment and 13 parking spaces for use by the building employees and visitors. The site includes landscaping, patio and onsite amenities within the building related to the life skills development of the residents. At the Sept. 7 meeting, which continued a hearing on the project, the developers noted that a portion of the apartments would meet affordable housing requirements, as well. “THRIVE Red Bank will be the first of our initiatives to build capacity for innovative, person-centered solutions and create a marketplace of supportive housing options,” Fluharty said about the development. Parents With A Plan is comprised of parents, families, legal and housing professionals, all fostering "person-centered living environments throughout New Jersey," it says.   A Walkable Town And Robin Klein, also developer/owner of THRIVE Red Bank, said Red Bank is a perfect fit for the concept. She and her husband, John, live in Middletown, according to their bios on the Parents With A Plan website. "As a walkable town with shopping, recreation, education, entertainment and more, Red Bank offers a unique location," said Robin Klein, also a retail real estate entrepreneur and deeply involved in many philanthropic pursuits. “Red Bank also offers our future residents opportunities to gain meaningful local employment and, most critically, access to public transit, as many neuro-diverse adults do not drive,” she said. “Red Bank provides the community and the quality of life and the ethos of giving, engaging and inclusion that will be critical as these young adults move into independent living,” she said.   The Rutgers Connection Another element of THRIVE Red Bank will be a collaboration with the Rutgers Center for Adult Autism Services to create "a new standard of excellence in supporting housing," developers say. Rutgers senior clinical faculty and highly trained clinical staff will support the residents there. And university students from a variety of academic disciplines will have the opportunity to receive hands-on training and intensive supervision, laying a foundation to support future residential communities. "Red Bank has an opportunity to be a leader in showing the world what a model compassionate, supportive community can look like,” said Christopher Manente, PhD., founding executive director of the Rutgers Center. “The importance of THRIVE goes far beyond improving the quality of life of the 32 residents that will live there. THRIVE will provide an example of a high-quality, neuro-inclusive supporting housing property that demonstrates how everyone can succeed if given the right support and opportunities," he said. THRIVE Red Bank was inspired by First Place AZ, a supportive housing community in Phoenix that serves the rapidly growing, under-served population, developers say.   For more information about the THRIVE Red Bank project or its other resources, visit www.parentswithaplan.org  

Why It’s Still a Seller’s Market Today Even though activity in the housing market has slowed from the frenzy that was the ‘unicorn’ years, it’s still a seller’s market because the supply of homes for sale is so low. But what does that really mean for you? And why are conditions today so good if you want to sell your house? The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows housing supply is still astonishingly low. Housing inventory is measured by the number of available homes on the market. It’s also measured by months’ supply, meaning the number of months it would take to sell all those available homes based on current demand. In a balanced market, there’s usually about a six-month supply. Today, we have only about 3 months’ supply of homes at the current sales pace (see graph below):  As the visual shows, given the current inventory of homes, it’s still a seller's market. Today, we’re nowhere near what’s considered a balanced market. In fact, the current months’ supply is half of what’s typical of a normal market. That means there just aren’t enough homes to go around based on today’s buyer demand. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, says: “There are simply not enough homes for sale. The market can easily absorb a doubling of inventory.” How Does Being in a Seller’s Market Benefit You? Sellers, these conditions give you a real edge. Right now, there are buyers who are ready, willing, and able to purchase a home. And, because there's a shortage of homes up for sale, the ones that do hit the market are like magnets for those buyers. If you work with a local real estate agent to list your house right now, in good condition, and at the right price, it could get a lot of attention. You might even end up with multiple offers. Bottom Line Today’s seller’s market sets you up with a big advantage when you sell your house. Because supply is so low, your house will be in the spotlight for motivated buyers who are craving more options. Let’s connect so you understand what’s happening in our local area as you get ready to enter the market.

Expert Home Price Forecasts Revised Up for 2023 Toward the end of last year, there were a number of headlines saying home prices were going to fall substantially in 2023. That led to a lot of fear and questions about whether there was going to be a repeat of the housing crash that happened back in 2008. But the headlines got it wrong. While there was a slight home price correction after the sky-high price appreciation during the ‘unicorn’ years, nationally, home prices didn’t come crashing down. If anything, prices were a lot more resilient than many people expected. Let's take a look at some of the expert forecasts from late last year stacked against their most recent forecasts to show that even the experts recognize they were overly pessimistic. Expert Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now This visual shows the 2023 home price forecasts from seven organizations. It provides the original 2023 forecasts (released in late 2022) for what would happen to home prices by the end of this year and their most recently revised 2023 forecasts (see chart below): As the red in the middle column shows, in all instances, their original forecast called for home prices to fall. But, if you look at the right column, you’ll see all experts have updated their projections for the year-end to show they expect prices to either be flat or have positive growth. That’s a significant change from the original negative numbers. There are a number of reasons why home prices are so resilient to falling. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says: “One thing is for sure, having long-term, fixed-rate debt in the U.S. protects homeowners from payment shock, acts as an inflation hedge - your primary household expense doesn't change when inflation rises - and is a reason why home prices in the U.S. are downside sticky.” A Look Forward To Get Ahead of the Next Headlines For home prices, you’re going to continue to see misleading media coverage in the months ahead. That’s because there’s seasonality to home price appreciation and they’re going to misunderstand that. Here’s what you need to know to get ahead of the next round of negative headlines. As activity in the housing market slows at the end of this year (as it typically does each year), home price growth will slow too. But, this doesn’t mean prices are falling – it’s just that they’re not increasing as quickly as they were when the market was in the peak homebuying season. Basically, deceleration of appreciation is not the same thing as home prices depreciating. Bottom Line The headlines have an impact, even if they’re not true. While the media said home prices would fall significantly in their coverage at the end of last year, that didn’t happen. Let’s connect so you have a trusted resource to help you separate fact from fiction with reliable data.

Upscale Bowling Lanes Roll Into New Jersey Shore’s Pier Village Kushner Adds Upscale Sports-Focused Entertainment Venue to Mixed-Use Development It Acquired in 2014 Pier Pins will feature four full-sized bowling lanes. (Kushner Cos.) Pier Village, a mixed-use complex on the New Jersey oceanfront, is adding what it describes as an upscale entertainment lounge with bowling, virtual-reality sports simulators, table games and a full bar to its roster. Pier Pins, which will be occupying 8,000 square feet at 20 Melrose Place in Long Branch, is slated to hold its grand opening Sept. 7, according to Pier Village's owner, New York-based Kushner Cos. The new lounge will feature four full-sized bowling lanes, as well as an array of virtual-reality sporting experiences ranging from golf to lacrosse to soccer via three sports-simulator bays. The venue's other gaming options include air hockey, ping pong and billiards. Pier Pins also offers guests a full-service bar, surrounded by high-tops and lounge seating, that will be serving handcrafted cocktails and a range of beers and wines. The site will also offer a "menu of bar bites," fare overseen by the team behind Pier Village’s award-winning Salt Steakhouse. Kushner acquired Pier Village in 2014. The property includes more than 140,000 square feet of retail, food and beverage, and fitness operators. There are also 493 luxury apartments, 243 condominium units and 91 hotel rooms at Pier Village, which attracts over 2.3 million annual visitors, according to Kushner. “We knew that a high-end entertainment concept would be the ideal complement to the diverse slate of food and beverage and shopping experiences available to visitors at Pier Village,” Nicole Kushner Meyer, Kushner's president, said in a statement. Kushner has tapped operations veteran Ernie Blundell to manage Pier Pins. Blundell has over 30 years of management experience at such other attractions as the Empire State Building, the National Sept. 11 Memorial & Museum, the Seattle Space Needle and Six Flags Great Adventure prior to his role at Pier Pins.