Skove Real Estate Team • eXp Realty • Red Bank, NJ • NJShoreRealtors.com
Lincroft Single-Family Home Market Report
Lincroft's single-family home market in October 2026 is a strong seller's market — with a pipeline that has nearly run dry. Six homes closed at a median of $977,500, and buyers paid an average of 106.35% of list price, up from about 102.6% in September—homes sold in a median of 26 days. Months of supply fell to 1.6, with just 8 homes for sale. The median estimated home value reached $1,091,580, up 10.82% year over year. The surprise is what's coming next: at the end of October, only one Lincroft single-family home was under contract, down from six a month earlier, and only two new listings came to market.
Data source: Realtors Property Resource (RPR), October 31, 2026. Single-Family Residence only, Lincroft, NJ (a community within Middletown Township; ZIP 07738).
Why Single-Family Data Tells a Different Story
Lincroft is a largely single-family community in western Middletown Township, and its numbers stand apart from both the township and the county. Think of it like a batting average: a countywide average across municipalities and property types. Lincroft's median estimated home value of $1,091,580 is about 25% above the county's most recent $873,240, and its homes are selling further over asking — 106.35% of list in October, versus the county's most recent 100.73%.
Key Market Statistics — October 2026 (Single-Family Residence)
| Metric | October 2026 | September 2026 | Month-over-Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sold Price (SFR)* | $977,500 | $995,000 | ↓ 1.76% |
| Median Estimated Home Value | $1,091,580 | $1,077,510 | ↑ 1.31% |
| Median Active List Price | $1,069,999 | $992,500 | ↑ 7.81% |
| Median Days on Market (Sold)* | 26 days | 16 days | ↑ 62.5% (slower) |
| List-to-Sale Price Ratio* | 106.35% | ~102.6% | ↑ 3.7% |
| Months of Supply | 1.6 months | 2.0 months | ↓ 20% (tighter) |
| Active SFR Listings | 8 | 10 | ↓ 20% |
| Median Days on Market — Active | 73 days | ~59 days | ↑ 23.7% |
| Closed Sales (October 2026) | 6 | 7 | ↓ 14.3% |
| New Listings (October 2026) | 2 | 3 | ↓ 33.3% |
| New Pending Contracts (October 2026) | 1 | 3 | ↓ 66.7% |
| Pending Listings (end of month) | 1 | 6 | ↓ 83.3% |
| Median $/sqft — Active Listings | $413/sqft | ~$442/sqft | ↓ 6.6% |
| 12-Month Value Change | +10.82% • $985,020 → $1,091,580 • +$106,560 | ||
| 36-Month Value Change | +28.31% • $850,730 → $1,091,580 • +$240,850 | ||
*Based on 6 closings in October and 7 in September. Figures marked ~ are September baselines back-calculated from RPR's own reported month-over-month change. With only one new contract and two new listings in October, RPR did not publish median prices or $/sqft for new listings or pending homes this month. Source: Realtors Property Resource (RPR), October 31, 2026. Estimated values are model-generated, not formal appraisals.
A Pipeline Running on Empty: Lincroft had one of its busiest summers in years — 10 closings in July and 12 in August — but the pipeline behind those sales has thinned out fast. Pending contracts went from 16 in mid-summer to 6 at the end of September and just 1 at the end of October. Only one home went under contract all month, and only two new listings came on. That points to very few closings in November and December. It's partly seasonal, and it isn't a sign of weak demand — homes that did sell went well over asking. It's a sign of very little to buy, and of the 8 remaining listings sitting longer (a median of 73 days) at prices above where recent homes have closed.
Market Analysis — What the Numbers Mean
For single-family sellers:
Lincroft buyers are still paying up for the right house. In the 10 most recent closings, seven of the eight sold over asking—5 Colonial Way by 21.18% in 11 days, 282 Parkview Ter by 13.08%, and 22 Braeburn Dr by 11.11% in just 7 days. Even the slower sales held up: 184 Parkview Ter took 41 days and still closed 6.15% over list. Think of it like a quiet auction room with very few lots: when a good one comes up, every bidder in the room raises a hand. With only one home in contract and two new listings in October, a well-prepared listing this fall or early winter would face very little competition. The caution is the 8 homes still for sale: they've been listed a median of 73 days at a $1,069,999 median list price — above the $977,500 median sale — which suggests buyers are passing on homes priced ahead of the market.
For single-family buyers:
Expect competition on anything new and well-priced — seven of the eight recent sales with a reported ratio closed over asking, several by double digits. Have financing approved and a clear top number before you tour. The opening for buyers is the handful of listings that have sat for two months or more: those sellers haven't attracted offers at their current price, and they may be more willing to negotiate heading into the holidays.
The PSA perspective on the pipeline:
Two numbers tell Lincroft's story this month, and they point in different directions. The rearview mirror is excellent: a 106.35% list-to-sale ratio and values up 10.82% year over year. The windshield is nearly empty: one pending sale and two new listings. Months of supply looks tight at 1.6, but RPR calculates it from a 12-month average of new contracts — so it still reflects the busy summer. If contracts stay this slow, supply will look looser in the coming months even if nothing else changes. For sellers, that's an argument for listing sooner rather than waiting for spring, when more inventory typically arrives. For buyers, it's a reason to watch the stale listings closely.
Mansion Tax Note: For transactions at or above $1,000,001, New Jersey's Mansion Tax (now the "Graduated Percent Fee," P.L. 2025, c. 69, effective July 10, 2025) is paid by the seller at a graduated rate: 1% from $1M–$2M, 2% from $2M–$2.5M, 2.5% from $2.5M–$3M, 3% from $3M–$3.5M, and 3.5% above $3.5M — applied to the full purchase price, not just the amount above each threshold. With Lincroft's median sale near $1 million, bidding wars can push a home across the line. 5 Colonial Way was listed under $1 million and sold for $1,150,000 after a 21% bidding war — which brought a Mansion Tax of about $11,500 that wouldn't have applied at its list price. 22 Braeburn Dr at $1,250,000 owes about $12,500, and 57 Redfield Rd at $1,465,000 about $14,650. By contrast, 282 Parkview Ter drew a 13% premium and still closed at $995,000, just under the threshold. Factor this into your net proceeds calculation before listing, not after an offer arrives.
3-Year Price Trend — Single-Family Residence
Lincroft SFR median values at multiple time horizons — Source: RPR, 10/31/2026
| Metric | Current (Oct 2026) | 12 Months Ago | Change | 36 Months Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Est. Home Value | $1,091,580 | $985,020 | +10.82% | $850,730 | +28.31% |
| Median Sold Price* | $977,500 | $1,130,000 | −13.5% | $1,300,000 | −24.81% |
| Median Sold Price (24-month)* | $977,500 | $975,000 | +0.26% | — | — |
Source: Realtors Property Resource (RPR) Market Snapshot, 10/31/2026. *Lincroft single-month sold medians rest on roughly 1–12 closings and swing with the mix of homes sold — the −24.81% three-year sold-price figure compares against a single high-priced month, not a decline in values. The estimated-value trend (+10.82% in one year, +28.31% in three) is the reliable read on appreciation. Estimated values are model-generated, not formal appraisals. Median List Price's 24- and 36-month figures are omitted — RPR's own data shows a flat ~$639,950 list-price baseline before mid-2024, consistent with a change in RPR's list-price data source rather than a real market shift.
Monthly Sales Activity — Single-Family (Last 12 Months)
Active listing inventory vs. closed sales volume, Lincroft SFR. Source: RPR MLS data, 10/31/2026.
| Month | Active Listings | Closed Sales | Month | Active Listings | Closed Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | 4 | 3 | May 2026 | 9 | 4 |
| Dec 2025 | 3 | 7 | Jun 2026 | 12 | 3 |
| Jan 2026 | 3 | 1 | Jul 2026 | 12 | 10 |
| Feb 2026 | 5 | 2 | Aug 2026 | 13 | 12 |
| Mar 2026 | 7 | 1 | Sep 2026 | 10 | 7 |
| Apr 2026 | 8 | 3 | Oct 2026 | 8 | 6 |
Active listings are end-of-month snapshots. July through October brought 35 closings — more than the previous eight months combined (24). Inventory peaked at 13 in August and has fallen for two straight months. Closed sales figures may be revised as we record late transactions.
Sample of Closed Single-Family Transactions — September–October 2026
Median closed price from this sample: $987,500. Median $/sqft: $535 (MLS-listed sales). Median days on market: 11. Seven of the eight sales had a reported ratio of closed over asking.
| Property | Closed Price | $/sqft | Sqft | DOM | List: Sale / Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105 Augusta Dr* 4/3 • 2,263 sqft • Built 1969 |
$980,000 | $433 | 2,263 | 11 | No ratio reported |
| 5 Colonial Way* 4/3 • 2,150 sqft • Built 1961 |
$1,150,000 | $535 | 2,150 | 11 | ↑ 21.18% — biggest premium in sample |
| 6 Murfield Dr* 4/3 • 2,214 sqft • Built 1971 |
$975,000 | $440 | 2,214 | 40 | ↓ 2.01% — only under-ask sale in sample |
| 22 Braeburn Dr* 4/3 • 2,208 sqft • Built 1974 |
$1,250,000 | $566 | 2,208 | 7 | ↑ 11.11% — fastest sale in sample |
| 184 Parkview Ter* 3/2 • 1,020 sqft • Built 1954 |
$690,000 | $676 | 1,020 | 41 | ↑ 6.15% — over ask despite 41 days |
| 47 Phalanx Rd* 3/1 • 1,080 sqft • Built 1958 |
$670,000 | $620 | 1,080 | 55 | ↑ 1.67% — longest market time in sample |
| 1 Tuller Ct 4/4 • 4,407 sqft • Built 1999 |
$1,925,000 | — | 4,407 | — | Public record sale; no list data |
| 31 Circle Pl 3/2 • 2,182 sqft • Built 1957 |
$910,000 | $417 | 2,182 | 9 | ↑ 7.07% — over ask in 9 days |
| 282 Parkview Ter 4/3 • 3,106 sqft • Built 1954 |
$995,000 | $320 | 3,106 | 21 | ↑ 13.08% — stayed just under $1M |
| 57 Redfield Rd 4/3 • 2,678 sqft • Built 1976 |
$1,465,000 | $547 | 2,678 | 11 | ↑ 4.72% — over ask in 11 days |
Source: RPR Market Activity report / MLS and public records, pulled 11/9/2026. Closed dates 9/22/2026–10/23/2026 — the 10 most recent single-family closings at the time of the pull. *Closed in October 2026; together, these six account for October's $977,500 median sold price. All carry a Lincroft 07738 address. $/sqft is shown for MLS-listed sales only; RPR's public-record figure for 1 Tuller Ct doesn't reconcile with its price and size, or the list—to—sale ratio RPR reports.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median single-family home price in Lincroft right now?
The median sold price for a single-family home in Lincroft in October 2026 is $977,500, down 1.76% from September's $995,000, on six closings. The median estimated home value is $1,091,580, up 10.82% year over year. Homes currently for sale carry a median list price of $1,069,999.
How long does it take to sell a single-family home in Lincroft?
Single-family homes in Lincroft sold in a median of 26 days in October 2026, up from 16 in September. The fastest recent sales took about a week: 22 Braeburn Dr sold in 7 days and 31 Circle Pl in 9, both over asking. The homes still for sale at the end of October had been listed a median of 73 days.
Are single-family homes in Lincroft selling over asking price?
Yes. The average list-to-sale ratio in October 2026 was 106.35%, up from about 102.6% in September and well above the county's most recent 100.73%. In the 10 most recent closings, seven of the eight sold over asking, led by 5 Colonial Way at 21.18% over, and only one sold under, by 2.01%.
Is it a seller's or buyer's market for single-family homes in Lincroft?
It's a strong seller's market. Lincroft has 1.6 months of supply—well below the 3-month balanced-market threshold—with 8 single-family homes for sale at the end of October. The pipeline is unusually thin, though: just one home was under contract and only two new listings came to market in October, so activity is likely to be light through the end of the year.
How much have single-family home values increased in Lincroft?
Lincroft's median estimated single-family home value has risen 10.82% over the past 12 months and 28.31% over three years, from $850,730 to $1,091,580 — a gain of about $240,850. It rose 3.58% over the past three months alone. The one-year gain is roughly double the county's most recent 5.08%.
What is a good price per square foot for a single-family home in Lincroft?
At the end of October 2026, active Lincroft single-family listings carried a median of $413 per square foot. The recent MLS-listed sales had a median of $535 per square foot, ranging from $320 for a 3,106-square-foot home to $676 for a 1,020-square-foot home. Smaller homes tend to sell at higher prices per square foot. Price per square foot is a useful benchmark, never a substitute for a full comparative market analysis.
What is the housing market like in Lincroft in fall 2026?
Lincroft is a strong seller's market coming off a busy summer, with 35 closings from July through October. October's six sales went for 106.35% of list price on average, and values are up 10.82% year over year. Heading into winter, though, inventory and new contracts are both very low — just 8 homes for sale and 1 under contract — so well-priced new listings should draw strong interest.
Know What Your Lincroft Home Is Worth
Lincroft buyers paid an average of 6% over asking in October, and with only one home in contract heading into November, a well-priced new listing would have the market nearly to itself. Ryan Skove has closed over 750 transactions and $500M in Monmouth County real estate, and as a former Middletown Township Housing Authority Commissioner knows the township well — including exactly where your home lands in this data.
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